死亡笔记

急于求成：经济学家对印尼经济增长雄心提出质疑_我的网站

一 | Colombo, Oct 19 (UNI) President Ranil Wickremesinghe is as corrupt as any other politician and he cannot save Sri Lanka from the present economic crisis, the leader of the country's largest leftist group said in remarks published on Wednesday.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the Janatha Vimukti Peramuna (JVP) also said that the mass protests in Sri Lanka failed to achieve its aim of capturing power although it forced President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee "for want of proper leadership and planning", The Island newspaper reported.
Dissanayake has said ‘Aragalaya’, as the mass protests against Sri Lanka's unprecedented economic mess was known, failed "for want of proper leadership and planning though it compelled Gotabaya Rajapaksa to give up executive powers".
He pointed out in a television interview that although the Rajapaksas’ power collapsed, "they were able to quickly regain, and consolidate political power, by installing UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe to complete the remainder of Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s term".
The JVP leader added that the incumbent Wickremesinghe administration was as corrupt as successive Rajapaksa administrations.
He felt that having forced Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee Sri Lanka, the protest should have been diverted towards Parliament and force the government to dissolve it and call for a fresh election.
Because of this failure, the Rajapaksas succeeded in regaining political power, he added.
Commenting on former Army chief and MP Sarath Fonseka’s assertion that the ongoing anti-government struggle may lead to another armed rebellion, the JVP leader emphasized that his party wouldn’t go on that path again.
The JVP launched insurgencies in 1971 and 1987-89, leaving thousands dead.
Asked to explain the JVP's strategy, Dissanayake said they believed that the government should be relentlessly pressed until it called a general election.
“We’ll secure power through elections,” he said, warning the electorate not to be deceived by the Rajapaksas and Wickremesinghe again.
Dissanayake alleged that the the leader of the main opposition Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), Sajith Premadasa, "was also part of the utterly corrupt political party system that ruined the country".
"(Premadasa) as well as a vast majority of those around him cannot absolve themselves of waste, corruption, mismanagement and irregularities though they now pretended to be paragons of virtue," he added.
UNI MR。　　核心要点　　印尼在 2026 年一直疲于应对财政支出争议、以及明晟（MSCI）可能将其降级为前沿市场的风险，眼下该国或将难以达成明年的经济增长目标。　　总统普拉博沃・苏比安托希望在 2027 年把经济增速提升至 6%，同时将财政赤字控制在国内生产总值（GDP）的 2.4%。这意味着，印尼要在过去十年约 5% 的平均增速基础上再上一个台阶，并且把赤字维持在法定 3% 的上限以内。政府财政方案还涵盖粮食与能源自给自足等目标。　　国际金融研究院副首席经济学家阿肖克・本迪亚表示：“他们想要在短时间内完成太多事情，部分目标的时间规划有些过于理想化。”他称，想要在明年实现 6% 的增速，大概率需要一场意料之外的大宗商品繁荣，以此拉动出口、财政收入与投资。　　就在此时，指数提供商明晟（MSCI）把印尼市场评估审查期限延长至 11 月，本次审查将决定是否把印尼从新兴市场下调至前沿市场。市场的担忧点包括：普拉博沃标志性的免费营养餐计划等财政开支；备受尊敬的前财长斯里・穆利亚尼离任带来的变数；普拉博沃的侄子托马斯・吉万多诺出任印尼央行副行长，引发市场对央行独立性的质疑。今年 6 月，印尼盾兑美元汇率创下历史新低。　　资本经济学高级亚洲经济学家加雷斯・莱瑟表示，6% 的增长会是一次 “巨大跨越”。财政刺激固然可以拉动增长，但从提交的预算草案来看，政府并无放宽财政的意向。

二 | 莱瑟称，货币宽松或许可以带来 “短期提振”，但印尼央行独立于政府运作；一旦央行独立性遭到侵蚀，将会 “损害国家信誉”。　　智库 Bright Institute 高级经济学家亚努阿尔・里兹基认为这份预算的各项假设 “完全脱离现实”。他指出，民众购买力 “十分脆弱”，网络借贷规模激增；印尼金融服务管理局（OJK）数据显示，6 月网贷融资余额同比增长 25.88%。　　他表示，民众储蓄消耗殆尽、背负高息债务，在此背景下依靠税收增收难度很大；另外，中国经济放缓也会拖累印尼出口。

三 | 　　当然，印尼也存在实现更高增速的路径，以投资为导向的改革便是其一。　　本迪亚提到太阳能领域投资前景 “令人鼓舞”，会对长期增长产生乘数效应；莱瑟则建议应当 “聚焦供给侧”，加大基建投入、出台政策吸引外资。　　以投资为核心的改革是实现高速增长的可行路径。本迪亚称，“即便中国经济放缓，只要监管框架到位，印尼依旧可以吸引新增投资。” 他同样看好太阳能投资及其长期乘数效应。　　不过，上述预测面临多重挑战，伊朗冲突即为变量之一。印尼政府已经表态，2026 年维持补贴燃油价格不变；一旦供应中断或是军事冲突进一步恶化推高国际油价，财政预算就会承受压力。　　总而言之，想要同时实现高增长与低赤字双重目标，印尼整体上必须强化财政纪律；政策制定者能否拿捏好平衡，仍有待观察。