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Dialogue seeks tangible results in Sino-U.S. ties_我的网站

丘比特的圈套

A | 近日，瑞士高端跑鞋品牌昂跑发布2026财年二季度财报，营收增速未达到市场预期，公司主动下调全年业绩指引。

B | Representatives from China and the United States participated in a dialogue on Tuesday in Beijing, where they called for joint efforts to translate the consensus reached by the two countries' heads of state into concrete action and tangible results, while also suggesting expansion of practical cooperation across a number of fields. They highlighted mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation as key to keeping bilateral ties on a stable track, while stressing the need for the two countries to jointly address global challenges and bring greater stability to the world. The gathering was the third China-U.S. Track 1.5 Dialogue, jointly launched in October 2023 by the International Department of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the Asia Society as a platform connecting representatives from politics, strategy, business, academics, civil society and youth in both countries. In May, President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to make the building of a constructive China-U.S. relationship of strategic stability the new positioning for bilateral ties, providing strategic guidance for the relationship over the next three years and beyond. John L. Thornton, cochair of the Asia Society Board of Trustees, said Xi and Trump are both historic figures who know each other well and have a good personal relationship — a combination he described as highly unusual. "I think it's very important that the benefit of that is concrete and seen by the people, both in the United States and in China," Thornton said. He added that the key test was what the new positioning would mean in practice and whether it could produce results. "There are a lot of possibilities for progress, and I'm optimistic that there will be progress," he said. Christopher Nixon Cox, a member of the Richard Nixon Foundation's board of directors and a grandson of former U.S. president Richard Nixon, called the leader-to-leader relationship "the most important thing", saying it gave him confidence about the future of bilateral ties. While acknowledging that China and the U.S. would continue to have differences, Cox said they should seek common ground in the fields of artificial intelligence, agriculture, food security and economic affairs to help build a stable and prosperous world. "There are many things with AI that we can agree on," he said, citing the need to prevent it from harming children. Cox also invoked Nixon's historic visit to China in 1972 as an example of the political courage required on both sides. "There are many lessons from my grandfather's trip to China," he said. "One is that nothing happens without courage." Liu Haixing, minister of the International Department of the CPC Central Committee, said that a stable China-U.S. relationship was in itself the greatest contribution to world peace and development. Liu called for expanding common interests, rejecting zero-sum thinking, managing differences through clear policy signals, and upholding the bottom line of no conflict and no confrontation. Competition between major countries is normal, he said, but that should not define the entire relationship, emphasizing that it should be a healthy and positive race rather than a life-or-death gladiatorial contest. A zero-sum approach, he added, would distort market rules, disrupt global industrial cooperation and undermine market confidence. Craig Allen, former president of the U.S.-China Business Council and a nonresident senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, said that both governments needed to follow the common framework agreed upon by the two leaders. He said maintaining an open trade and investment environment was critical to achieving the two leaders' goals. Warning that decoupling would "make us both poorer" and that "neither side can afford to decouple", Allen described the Chinese and U.S. economies as "the two engines of growth in the global economy", saying robust growth in both was essential to global stability. Sean Stein, president of the U.S.-China Business Council, said that China's importance to U.S. companies extended well beyond the size of its market. "Think of China not as a market but as a platform. That's what's important," Stein said. China's technological ecosystem, the partnerships companies form and the experience they gain there help shape products and business processes used in other markets, he added. The council's 2026 member survey found that 95 percent of respondents viewed their China operations as at least somewhat important to staying globally competitive. "China is a really important part of global competitiveness for American companies," Stein said. 。财报发布当日，昂跑美股盘中跌幅一度接近20%。

C | 从财报及电话会议披露的内容来看，昂跑二季度净销售额增速放缓是公司主动策略调整所致。受渠道策略调整影响，作为昂跑最大基本盘的北美市场，其二季度净销售额增速已由去年同期的双位数回落至个位数。在全球高端跑鞋赛道竞争加剧、昂跑北美市场“失速”的情况下，其能否在中国市场找回希望？管控北美批发渠道，坚守高端定位财报数据显示，昂跑二季度净销售额同比增长13.5%至8.503亿瑞士法郎，毛利率同比上升3.9个百分点至65.4%，DTC渠道净销售额增长26.0%至3.884亿瑞士法郎。直营业务已经成为其拉动利润增长的核心引擎。反观批发渠道的增速仅为4.8%，增长动力明显放缓。变化背后是北美市场运动品牌间的激烈竞争。在多品牌集合店，为与耐克、阿迪达斯、HOKA等品牌拉开差距形成价格优势，经销商们选择降价销售优化库存，这也打乱了昂跑长期建立起来的高端定价体系。对此，昂跑联席CEO大卫·阿勒曼（David Allemann）在业绩沟通会上明确表态：“我们可以做到大规模增长，同时不牺牲高端定位。面对北美市场行业折扣泛滥的环境，我们选择管控批发供货，避免向渠道压货导致后期降价清库存。”他表示，短期牺牲一部分批发出货，是为新品预留干净的销售环境，着眼于打造数十年周期的高端运动品牌。

D | 从商业模式来看，昂跑发力DTC直营，可以直接掌握定价权、用户数据以及线下门店的消费体验，进一步拉高毛利率。不过，“控货保价”的策略也带来了短期阵痛，美洲市场二季度增速回落至4.5%，明显放缓，品牌随之将2026年净销售额增速指引从此前的至少23%下调至低于20%区间。值得一提的是，资本市场的观点产生分化。Evercore ISI分析师迈克尔·比内蒂（Michael Binetti）认为，股价下跌是市场对公司从“高成长标的”向“高质量增长标的”的重新定价，目前昂跑的现金流、DTC布局、亚太增长等基本面依旧稳固，战略成效需要给予12—24个月的观察期。分析师迪伦·卡登（Dylan Carden）提醒，尽管保护品牌资产的逻辑成立，但批发渠道收缩的幅度与持续时间无法量化，收入前景具备不确定性，一旦新品迭代遇冷，业绩风险将会进一步凸显。中国市场优势突出，也暗藏多重挑战分区域来看，二季度，昂跑亚太地区增长43.1%至1.705亿瑞士法郎。从增速来看，以大中华区、日韩为代表的亚太市场，已经成为昂跑全球最核心的增长引擎。作为千元高端跑鞋的重要消费阵地，中国更是品牌当下最关键的增量来源，直营门店拓展也在稳步落地推进。2025年，昂跑联席CEO马丁・霍夫曼（Martin Hoffmann）曾表示：“接下来5年是昂跑在中国市场的重要时期，未来中国会成为第二大市场。”现阶段昂跑在中国已经走出一条差异化路线，瞄准都市品质消费群体，主打简约百搭、适配通勤场景的跑鞋产品。截至目前，该品牌在中国已落地超80家门店，绝大多数门店为直营店，重点聚焦布局一线、新一线商圈，依靠跑步社群运营强化用户黏性，扩大品牌影响力。同时，该品牌也在加速推进品类拓展，二季度服装品类收入同比增长47.7%，配饰增速更是高达88.3%，昂跑试图从单一跑鞋品牌，升级为覆盖服装、配饰的全品类运动生活方式品牌，打开全新增长空间。“服饰产品的同质化程度高，款式易被竞品模仿迭代，很难构筑深厚护城河；而跑鞋若能搭建起扎实的技术底盘，有利于品牌夯实自身的专业属性。”鞋服时尚行业品牌战略咨询专家、上海良栖品牌管理有限公司创始人程伟雄对中国商报记者分析，昂跑目前留给中国消费者的印象，潮流时尚属性大于专业运动属性，某种程度上带有一定的“网红”标签，市场辐射范围也仍有局限，品牌后续发展亟须在专业化赛道持续深耕。目前，体育用品行业竞争持续白热化，一方面，萨洛蒙、HOKA、索康尼等同类高端跑鞋品牌正持续加码市场，外部竞争加剧；另一方面，国产品牌向上突围的压力同样不容小觑，李宁、安踏、特步、361°以及必迈等运动品牌，已在大众跑鞋市场打下深厚根基。昂跑赖以生存的跑鞋赛道早已不再是蓝海。程伟雄坦言，一旦陷入“高不成、低不就”的尴尬处境，昂跑很容易被市场逐步边缘化。即便当前昂跑在中国DTC直营业务增长势头亮眼，但对比安踏等本土龙头的DTC运营能力，仍然存在明显差距。“DTC模式背后考验的是庞大的渠道管控团队，以及品牌建设、产品研发、供应链配套、本土化运营等综合实力。对于昂跑来说，在中国市场，一场深度的本土化能力升级已是势在必行。